Banners On The Parkway - Matching last seasonYour only remaining free source for Xavier Musketeers newshttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47177/banners-fave.png2015-05-31T22:49:17-04:00http://www.bannersontheparkway.com/rss/stream/84591762015-05-31T22:49:17-04:002015-05-31T22:49:17-04:00Matching last season: the stirring conclusion
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<img alt="Hooray for happy Muskies!" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5KWC6ufDOhLDsaiBYjPFMZ0uF38=/0x139:1687x1264/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46439454/usa-today-8466491.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Hooray for happy Muskies! | Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>So other than the fact that I have a lot of time on my hands, what have we learned through this? I think this was mostly just a clearer look at what we already knew, but here are the things that stood out to me:</p>
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<li><span>We have almost nobody left on the roster who moved the ball well last year. Not only is point guard play going to be an issue, but keeping everything running smoothly from 1 to 5 might cause some problems. Dee and Matt set the tone of whipping the ball around; I hope the team retains that identity.</span></li>
<li><span>We have the skills on the roster right now to replace Stainbrook, aside from his ball movement. The problem is that they don't come neatly packaged in one guy. Reynolds can score and rebound but fouls too much. Farr can rebound and stay out of foul trouble but isn't an offensive force. O'Mara got his feet wet but not much else last year. Managing the front court will a challenge for Mack this season.</span></li>
<li><span>We're really going to miss Dee if we can't get someone who can initiate the offense and stick open threes. If you don't believe me, go back and remember how frustrated everyone was when Dee was initiating the offense but not sticking open threes. It wasn't good.</span></li>
<li><span>It's way too long until the season begins.</span></li>
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https://www.bannersontheparkway.com/2015/5/31/8695815/matching-last-season-the-stirring-conclusionJoel D2015-05-31T22:39:41-04:002015-05-31T22:39:41-04:00Matching last season: ball distribution
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<img alt="Basically all our assists." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2hvAlBBNAShMqxjn0J7hgwPEHeo=/0x0:3005x2003/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46439270/usa-today-8330821.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Basically all our assists. | Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Pass and move, Hoosiers style.</p> <p>It's interesting to note that assist rate doesn't correlate extremely strongly to winning basketball. Things like getting to the line and hauling down offensive boards seem to have more to do with how a game ends than what percentage of buckets were assisted.</p>
<p>What it does correlate to is attractive basketball; watching five guys work in concert to get a good look is more fun than 28 seconds of high ball screens. Xavier assisted 62.3% of their buckets last year, good for 14th in the nation and plenty of fun to watch besides.</p>
<h3>What are we losing?</h3>
<p>Well, our two best assist-creating starters and a sneaky-valuable bench piece in Brandon Randolph. Only Dee (33.5%), Matt (19.6%) and Brandon (20.4%) assisted more than 1 in 5 of their teammates buckets while they were on the floor. Dee was obviously the guard who spent the most time with the ball in his hands, and Matt was a big man through whom you could run the offense at the high or low post without worrying that the ball would never come back out.</p>
<p>It's not entirely clear what Randolph was, I wish him the best in Utah.</p>
<h3>Can we replace it?</h3>
<p>That may be the biggest question facing this team this year. The highest returning assist rate on the team is Myles Davis's 15.2%. That's not horrible for a player with Myles's kind of game, but it's nowhere near what you want to see out of a point guard. Larry Austin, Jr., for all the good he did in changing the tempo of games, assisted less than 10% of his teammates buckets while on the floor. LAJ, Sumner, and Myles all have some point guard skills; someone is going to have to step up and fill the void that Dee left.</p>
<p>What about the big men? It was a huge luxury to be able to throw the ball to Matt and continue running offense rather than just waiting for him to shoot. Jalen and James each have assist rates below 5%, and Sean O'Mara's is below 10%. Post play - and indeed the entire offense - is going to have a different feel to it this year.</p>
https://www.bannersontheparkway.com/2015/5/31/8695579/matching-last-season-ball-distributionJoel D2015-05-31T22:39:08-04:002015-05-31T22:39:08-04:00Matching last season: rim protection
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<figcaption>Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>No easy buckets.</p> <p>Nothing helps out a defense like having a big eraser in the middle to take care of business. Xavier had about the exact opposite of that effect as a team last season. The Muskies blocked 8.3% of opponents' two-point attempts, good for 231st in the country. Part of this was because of the team's defensive philosophy of walling up opposing posts rather than leaving feet to challenge shots, but a lot has to do with the fact that Xavier's big men just weren't that good at blocking shots.</p>
<h3>What are we losing?</h3>
<p>Dee Davis blocked two shots in four years.</p>
<p>Matt Stainbrook was actually a decent shot blocker, third among regulars with a block% of 2.9%. He was capable of getting to the odd attempt coming off a player's hand, but he was not the kind of rim protector you envision when you use the phrase.</p>
<h3>Can we replace it?</h3>
<p>Yes, and fairly simply. James Farr and Jalen Reynolds each blocked more than 5.5% of opponents' two-point attempts, which is not bad if not exactly dominant. Makinde London is an athletic and long big man; he'll be good for some weak side rim protection, though his lack of bulk keeps him from being a true one-on-one post defender. Sean O'Mara was a decent shotblocker in limited time last year; we'll see how that develops.</p>
<p>Blocking shots is not a big part of Xavier's defensive philosophy; they're basically just gravy whenever they happen. For all that Matt Stainbrook offered, turning away opponents at the rim wasn't part of that package.</p>
https://www.bannersontheparkway.com/2015/5/31/8695795/matching-last-season-rim-protectionJoel D2015-05-31T18:46:51-04:002015-05-31T18:46:51-04:00Matching last season: defensive rebounding
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<img alt="James doing what he does." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MjgEtf7yI06vyt0-dw3RnXE42T8=/0x213:3320x2426/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46438666/usa-today-8342414.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>James doing what he does. | Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>An incredibly big part of getting stops is killing possessions with defensive boards; how much did Xavier lose there?</p> <p>It doesn't matter how poorly you force an opponent to shoot; if you keep letting them get offensive boards, they're going to score on you eventually. The only way to turn a missed shot into a stop is to grab a defensive rebound, and a player who can do that is just as vital to a defense as a player who can get inside an opposing scorer's nightmares. Xavier was an elite defensive rebounding team last season, grabbing almost 73% of their opponents' misses, good for 35th in the country.</p>
<h3>What did we lose?</h3>
<p>Dee didn't really do much on the defensive glass. His DReb% of 7.7% was about mediocre for a point guard, which is not a position you're counting on for the bulk of your rebounding.</p>
<p>Matt Stainbrook, on the other hand, was an elite defensive rebounder. His DReb% of 22.2% was easily in the top 100 in the country, and the amount of real estate he carved out for his teammates to go get boards opened things up for the team as a whole.</p>
<h3>Can we replace it?</h3>
<p>Matt Stainbrook was a great defensive rebounder, but he wasn't even the best one on his team. That honor goes to James Farr, whose DReb% of 30.5% is almost comical. Jalen Reynolds was also incredible on the glass with a DReb% of 24.6%. Both of those guys will be back and both figure to be once again capable of doing good work when the ball comes off the rim.</p>
<p>The only question really is how long those guys can stay on the floor. Matt Stainbrook was an offensive force and mostly avoided foul trouble, so you could leave him out there for long stretches without hurting the team in any facet of play. Since it seems unlikely that James Farr is going to suddenly become an efficient scoring machine, it would really behoove Xavier for Jalen Reynolds to become less foul prone.</p>
https://www.bannersontheparkway.com/2015/5/31/8695143/matching-last-season-defensive-reboundingJoel D2015-05-31T18:46:17-04:002015-05-31T18:46:17-04:00Matching last season: offensive rebounding
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<img alt="Probably just grabbed a miss here." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0CkfqmUyKSdsmcjlfi09iJbLwPg=/0x460:1799x1659/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46438736/usa-today-8377600.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Probably just grabbed a miss here. | Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Free points can be had on the offensive glass.</p> <p>Inasmuch as defense ends when the board is secured, the offensive possession isn't really over as long as the ball is still up for grabs. Xavier got 11.6% of their shots at the rim on stickbacks last season, shooting 66% on those shots. They also grabbed 31.3% of their own misses, which was basically national average last year. This was another place where they started the season hot but really tailed off in conference play.</p>
<h3>What did we lose?</h3>
<p>Once again, <span>Dee Davis</span> was not part of the team's strategy here. His OReb% of 1.3% is indicative of a strategic decision to not send him to the glass when a Xavier shot went up, to say nothing of the fact that he was 6'0" in heels and generally not physically suited to running at the offensive glass.</p>
<p>Matt Stainbrook, of course, was a different story. His OReb% of 9.6% shows that he was not only often in position to grab a miss but had the wherewithal to secure the board. That OReb% was good for 328th in the country.</p>
<h3>Can we replace it?</h3>
<p>Once again <span>James Farr</span> and <span>Jalen Reynolds</span> took <span>Matt Stainbrook's</span> exemplary work on the glass and did it one better. Farr put up an OReb% of 11% and Reynolds boasted an 11.9% mark, both of which were in the top 200 in the country. Sean O'Mara is an interesting name here, because his 11% OReb% is actually higher than the number he put up on the defensive glass. The dude has a body that's hard for an opponent to move and a nose for the basketball; keep an eye on him on the offensive glass as someone who can help Xavier take a step up from where they landed last year.</p>
https://www.bannersontheparkway.com/2015/5/31/8695191/matching-last-season-offensive-reboundingJoel D2015-05-31T18:20:05-04:002015-05-31T18:20:05-04:00Matching last season: free throw shooting
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<img alt="Automatic." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/yyVR4CQxiUrEa9ACq-sUj3ylWPY=/0x184:3055x2221/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46438476/usa-today-8396602.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Automatic. | Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Unguarded from fifteen feet away; how hard could it be?</p> <p>Getting to and scoring from the line is a big part of being able to keep an offense going even when things are sputtering in other places. It's also a pretty solid predictor of how well a team is going to play in general; teams that score from the line are generally more like to win going forward than teams that do not. Part of this is reflective of officiating bias and home-court advantage, but part of it is just because points from the line are - or should be - basically automatic.</p>
<h3>What did we lose?</h3>
<p>Scoring from the line has two facets: being able to get there and being able to convert. Sometimes a player is really good at the first part but not the second (<span>Semaj Christon</span>), other times a player is really good at the second part but not the first (<span>Brad Redford</span>). <span>Matt Stainbrook</span> was really good at both of them, leading the team in free throws made and attempted. His 76.4% mark for the line was in the top 400 in the nation and certainly very respectable for a big man.</p>
<p>Just a shade behind him was Dee Davis. Dee was 75-104 from the stripe, neither drawing fouls nor converting at the rate that Stainbrook did, but still a solidly above-average free throw shooter.</p>
<h3>Can we replace it?</h3>
<p>Stainbrook led the team in free throw rate and was second in FT%. The two other Muskies nationally ranked in FT rate were <span>Myles Davis</span> (who shot 87.2% from the line) and <span>Trevon Bluiett</span> (who shot 74.6% from the line). Both of those guys and JP Macura (76.2% from the line) and to a lesser degree <span>Remy Abell</span> (71.3% from the line) will be assets to the team from the stripe again, though Abell and Macura didn't get to the line as often.</p>
<p>Having a big man who can convert from the line is a unique asset, and here's another place Stainbrook leaves a gap in the ranks. <span>Jalen Reynolds</span> figures to be option 1A on the post, but he shot a mere 66.3% from the line. Neither James Farr (46.9%) nor Sean O'Mara (47.4% in limited action) have shown that they can be the kind of free throw scorer Stainbrook was. Unless one of them takes a big step up or Jalen's stroke develops from the line, Xavier will take a step back in free throw scoring next season.</p>
https://www.bannersontheparkway.com/2015/5/31/8695057/matching-last-season-free-throw-shootingJoel D2015-05-31T18:19:36-04:002015-05-31T18:19:36-04:00Matching last season: scoring from behind the arc
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<img alt="Myles believes he knows the answer to this one." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/W_A13HcCpNXcrKokHCMnz7cIMck=/0x105:3509x2444/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46438272/usa-today-8455481.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Myles believes he knows the answer to this one. | John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The farther away you get, the more they're worth.</p> <p>Xavier started off last season hotter than a barrel of fire from deep before cooling down considerably through the middle part of the year. Success from behind the arc was a pretty good indicator of how likely Xavier was to win any given game; as long as they could hit enough to keep defenses honest, the rest usually took care of itself.</p>
<h3>What did we lose?</h3>
<p>Obviously Matt Stainbrook was not the biggest cog in the Xavier machine in terms of shooting from long range; he ended the year 1-5 from deep. <span>Dee Davis</span>, however, hit 35-109 from behind the arc and finished the season on a tear from deep that coincided with Xavier's hot streak of results as a team. Having a ball-handler who could hit if teams walked away from him was key for the Musketeers.</p>
<h3>Can we replace it?</h3>
<p>By and large, I believe we can. <span>Remy Abell</span> is not the kind of guy who hunts shots, but he is a reliable three-point shooter when the ball rotates his way. <span>Myles Davis</span> built on a solid freshman season by carrying his effective shooting deeper into the season last year. <span>Trevon Bluiett</span> and JP Macura both came into the program with reputations as big-time shooters, and they will surely both put up better numbers from behind the arc with a year of experience under their respective belts.</p>
<p>What is a more interesting problem is having a point guard who can shoot. Coach Mack is apparently at least a little unsettled with LAJ and <span>Edmond Sumner</span> at the point because <span>Myles Davis</span> is also part of the plan then. Myles can obviously shoot, but Larry didn't show much of a shot as a freshman and it was not high on his scouting report when he signed. Sumner is a guy who can score it all kinds of ways; if he can stay healthy and make a quick transition to the college game, he could answer a lot of the team's offensive questions by playing the point.</p>
https://www.bannersontheparkway.com/2015/5/31/8694997/matching-last-season-scoring-from-behind-the-arcJoel D2015-05-31T18:19:17-04:002015-05-31T18:19:17-04:00Matching last season: scoring inside the arc
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<img alt="Mean mug 'em, Jalen." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/q2jq_mTCpvS0TScTqSzS5NBYpIs=/0x377:3136x2468/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46438202/usa-today-8466493.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Mean mug 'em, Jalen. | John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Xavier was 14th in the nation in 2P% last year; what will they look like this coming season?</p> <p>There's no doubt that the strength of Xavier's offense last season was scoring inside the arc. The Musketeers shot 53.7% on two-point attempts, good for 14th in the country. They scored more than 53% of their points from two-point shots, ranking them 100th. Xavier's offense was elite, and it hinged on the ability to score inside.</p>
<h3>What did we lose?</h3>
<p>Matt Stainbrook was obviously a huge contributor here. He led Xavier with 122 made baskets at the rim (of Xavier's 514) and 50 other made two-point shots (of Xavier's 208). He was second with a 68.9% shooting percentage at the rim and led the team by shooting 50% on other two-point shots. Dee Davis shot 45.8% inside the arc on the whole, and his forays into the paint were most often memorable when he got spectacularly turned back.</p>
<h3>Can we replace it?</h3>
<p>The obvious answer here is Jalen Reynolds. He shot a thunderous 71.3% percent at the rim but was also a very respectable 46.9% on other two-point shots. James Farr (58.3% at the rim, 35.6% other two-point shots) also got a lot of looks but was not as effective at scoring them.</p>
<p>Trevon Bluiett (60%), Remy Abell (63%), and JP Macura (63.3%) were all also very effective at the rim despite having more pedestrian numbers on other two-point shots. Xavier as a team shot 61.6% at the rim.</p>
<p>If the Musketeers' perimeter players can make sure they're not settling for pull-up jumpers, that will help replace what the team lost when Matt Stainbrook graduated. The real key is going to be the shot selection of James Farr and how much Xavier can get the ball to Jalen Reynolds. If X can force the post with Jalen and have Big Game James converting at the rim and not shooting 18-foot jumpers, they'll be dominant inside once again.</p>
https://www.bannersontheparkway.com/2015/5/31/8694957/matching-last-season-scoring-inside-the-arcJoel D