Of Carts and Horses

Xavier is 21st in the NET right now. That is, inarguably, a great position to be in at this point in time in the season. Should the season end right this very second, the Musketeers would not only be in the tournament, they’d be in competition for a protected seed. They are ranked 17th in the AP poll, 23rd in the KenPom, 16th in Torvik, and projected as a four seed in the 36 really early bracket projections in the Bracket Matrix. This is all good.

Xavier is 22nd in the NET right now. That is, inarguably, a great position to be in at this point in time in the season. Should the season end right this very second, the Musketeers would not only be in the tournament, they’d be in competition for a protected seed. They are ranked 18th in the AP poll, 26th in KenPom, 22nd in Torvik, and projected as a five seed in the 36 really early bracket projections in the Bracket Matrix. This is all good.

Which of those paragraphs is about this season? It’s the second one. The first one is taken from January 3rd of last season. That Xavier team had more Q1 wins than this one and only lost twice, one of those to Villanova on the road. They were in a great position to have the best season they had in four years. Then Covid hit.

After a two week layoff, Xavier never recovered. The Musketeers as you are all aware, took a swan dive into the asphalt at 12-11 the rest of the way and finished off the bubble and in the NIT. A national championship there is fun, but it is only consolation for missing the tournament that matters. Travis Steele lost his job, Jonas Hayes took over and then left, and Xavier ran into the waiting arms of Sean Miller. (Or the other way around. Whichever works for you.) It turns out two weeks without games or practice is not an ideal way to prepare for the Big East.

Covid won’t be a problem this season. The shutdowns are done, there isn’t reason to think there will be any sort of break in this season, let alone two weeks without the team seeing each other. All of that is in the past, God willing.

Still, the pronunciations that Xavier is back and a sure tournament team are a bit premature. The Musketeers have 16 conference games left. This isn’t the Atlantic 10 from the last time Sean Miller was coach, so 20-0 or even something like 16-4 is not likely. Xavier still must play #3 UConn away, #18 Creighton twice, #20 Marquette twice, #43 Providence twice, and road games at Villanova and some ludicrous barn in Indiana where weird things happen.

Stay optimistic. Sean Miller is a better coach than Travis Steele and, frankly, basically any other coach in the nation not named Self, Bennett, or Sampson. Xavier is far less deep this year, but all seven of the rotation players are playing at or near their best. Kyky Tandy makes the occasional three, Cesare Edwards does active things when he plays, and there are also some other guys ostensibly on the team. Xavier is good, verging on very good.

But don’t get the cart all the way out in front of the horse just yet. The season will be halfway over at halftime on Saturday. There will yet be ups and downs. Nothing is certain. Nothing is a lock yet. Last January Xavier looked even better than this. Take a deep breath and settle in. We aren’t out of the Long Dark just yet.