With Trevon hitting, can Xavier win the Big East? Earn a 1 seed?

Joel

So Xavier was down to their last 12.9% of win probability with 36 seconds left last night. Obviously you guys all know how that turned out. The Bracket Matrix showed Xavier as the second 2 seed going into the weekend. With Duke and Kansas both falling, there’s a chance we see the Muskies on the 1 line in a lot of brackets on Monday. Do you think this team can play itself into contention for a 1 seed on Selection Sunday?

Brad

Joe Lunardi tweeted last night that he has X as the last 1 seed now. As a guy who grew up loving those Aaron Williams teams, that’s a little hard to process. I do think that’s a possibility, even if X loses to Nova again. Hold serve other than that, which will be difficult, and we should see our team on that top line.

Bryan

I think we have to either run the table in the regular season, which would include beating Nova, or win the BE tournament.

How about Tre finding a whole new level of clutchness last night? If you don’t count the desperation heave at the end of regulation, or Kaiser dribbling the clock out, Tre scored on our final possession of every period. That is just a surreal ability to get it done when the pressure is on.

Joel

Tre has been mind boggling at home this year. He’s shooting .498/.473/.896 at Cintas. Of course, the offshoot of that is that he’s not shooting well at all on the road, .364/.304/.739. Are you concerned about this? I’m kind of not. Sure it’s kind of a productivity suck when we played road games, but the most important games of the year from here on out will be at neutral sites.

Brad

I am, actually. We aren’t playing any NCAA tournament games at the Cintas. There’s enough of a sample size that it has become troubling. Last year, Tre shot a little bit better from behind the arc on the road. That was kind of an outlier, because for his career he’s a .397/.328/.770 shooter on the road. During the tournament you ask? .389/.356/.778.

Bryan

I am not concerned because I watched last post season. He dragged us to wins against Butler, Maryland, and Arizona as far and away our best offensive option. The FSU thrashing was more of a team effort, but he was good then, too. After a run like he put together in March last year, I think he has earned the benefit of the doubt as to whether he will be what we need him to be when the chips are down.

Brad

BE tournament: .419/.222/.692. NCAA: .450/.414/.760. March: .431/.365/.734.

Those are the raw numbers, just so we know what we’re talking. Given he went 3-14 against Gonzaga when it was clear he was utterly exhausted, his NCAA tournament numbers are amazing. Ultimately, we’re talking way too small of a sample to really be predictive.

Joel

I agree. I think Tre and JP are the only guys on the roster that can go win us a game by themselves, but I think this year’s ensemble is one of the best we’ve ever had.

We have a big man for every occasion. Naj can go get you a bucket or two, and he’s full of running. We have two big, athletic guards who are making jumpers in rhythm right now. Kaiser, when he’s going well, does a lot of things in addition to jarring threes.

I don’t think we’re going to the Final Four if Tre spits the bit, but I don’t think we need him to be the hero he had to be last year for X to make a run. Of course, it would be nifty if he did.

Brad

Can we talk for a second about how stupid that foul on Trevon was? He fouled a jump shooter, behind the arc, in a two possession game. It’s just insanely stupid. Under no circumstances should that happen. Dude should still be running lines.

Bryan

Yeah, I really didn’t get why he was closing out so hard. If he just stands there and Tre makes it, they are headed to the line where they had been cashing out all night. Also, Mosely gives every bit of 3” on Tre, so it is not like he was gonna run out there and throw him in all likelihood. The last 35 seconds of regulation from Georgetown was a study in how not to close games.

Joel

It was like Chris Mullin was in the building. Heck of a curveball by Coach Mack to press that last possession. Dude has some chops.

Next two weeks are @Butler, @Creighton, Seton Hall, Nova. That’s rugged. What do you want to see out of those four games?

Bryan

1-3 as long as the 1 is Butler.

Brad

At least a split, 3-1 if we want a realistic shot at a 1 seed.

Bryan

Honestly, using our depth is a huge key for this stretch. The reason we were able to put away our games this week is because we had alternatives at every position that we could count on. St. John’s felt the absence of Yakwe down the stretch and Georgetown were unable to keep their sway inside without Govan. Nova is missing Booth and Creighton is missing Krampelj, so upping the tempo and trying to take advantage of their shortened rotations here in the tail end of the season might serve us well. I think we need at least 3 wins in order to get a 1 seed, and beating Nova would be huge if we can pull it off. Big if.

Joel

I’d love to be 2-1 going into the Nova game. I think we can punch with them at home, and obviously a loss there isn’t crippling.

As has been out habit, let’s make some Super Bowl predictions. I don’t know too much about the Eagles, but I’m going to say the Patriots are probably better. I’m saying 31-20 New England.

Bryan

I hope the Patriots win just so the ignorant “BUT THE REFZ CHEAT” segment of America goes to bed unhappy. 38-24 for Touchdown Tom and the boys.

Brad

31-17, Patriots. I don’t have a dog in the fight but, like Bry, I love watching the whiners get all worked up.