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As previously discussed, we’re going to be taking a look at what the KenPom numbers say about the potential of the current players on the Xavier roster. For more detail on what exactly this will entail, click through here. Once you get caught up there, let's jump right in.
We’re starting with Quentin Goodin. What do we like about Q? Well, he posted a game line of 5.1/2.0/3.4 as a freshman and was 5th in the Big East in assist rate. He took over for all-everything PG Ed Sumner after Sumner’s season-ending knee injury and proved himself an adept hand at leading the team. What don’t we like? The ORtg of 86.2 and the shooting line of .350/.255/.575 were both kind of grim. Let’s see what history tells us...
Top performer: Brad Wannamaker (932)
| SEASON | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freshman | 11.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 32.9% | 16.7% | 48.4% |
| Sophomore | 19.0 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 46.2% | 39.0% | 74.6% |
| Junior | 32.6 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 43.9% | 35.7% | 72.0% |
| Senior | 30.4 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 44.8% | 32.7% | 76.0% |
Wannamaker kind of struggled a bit to find his place for a couple of years at Pitt before breaking out and never looking back. He couldn’t hit sand if he fell off a beach towel as a freshman before developing into a really reliable shooter. If Goodin follows this route, we’d all be happy.
The middle road: James Robinson (930)
| SEASON | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freshman | 26.6 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 36.8% | 31.3% | 79.2% |
| Sophomore | 31.0 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 40.1% | 34.3% | 79.4% |
| Junior | 33.9 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 36.7% | 29.8% | 83.3% |
| Senior | 32.0 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 37.3% | 32.5% | 75.8% |
James Robinson never quite developed the Wannamaker did, but he was a reliably above-average offensive weapon who distributed the ball well. The difference between these two players is Wannamaker developed the ability to hit jumpers and Robinson didn’t. Robinson posted ORtgs of 119 as a sophomore and 113 as a senior, so his developmental curve isn’t discouraging at all for those who believe Q’s shot isn’t coming.
The never bloomer: Kendren Johnson (928)
| SEASON | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freshman | 14.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 34.3% | 23.8% | 79.4% |
| Sophomore | 31.7 | 13.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 40.8% | 35.0% | 72.3% |
| Junior | 23.5 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 40.3% | 35.3% | 82.0% |
| Senior | 9.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 42.9% | 12.5% | 75.0% |
Johnson blew up as a volume scorer in his sophomore season on a mediocre Vanderbilt team. Searching for greener pastures, he transferred to Memphis and, after sitting out a year... never turned into anything. If he could have added efficiency to his raw output as a sophomore, he could have been a star. Instead, he gained 25 pounds in his redshirt year, got married between his junior and senior seasons, and played out his eligibility in fairly unimpressive fashion.
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Most of the comps from Quentin Goodin went on to have really good careers. Brad Wannamaker wasn’t the only one who was a star; Q also matched closely with former Iowa State stud Diante Garrett. It was harder to find someone who had a freshman year like Q’s and then bombed than to find ones that went on to be at least very solid. I think the future is bright for Xavier’s young PG.