First off, the good news. Xavier is in. Yes, there is always the off chance that the selection committee does something totally insane, but barring that, the Musketeers are going dancing. Still it can’t hurt to thin out the rest of the herd and move X up a couple of seeds and surely out of the play-in games. Here’s the other bubble teams that can lose today and keep Xavier away from Dayton.
Georgia and Indiana
These two are together because they both still have some very real work to do to get in the conversation. Georgia has to beat UK and then reassess. Indiana needs to win at least two more games. If they both pick up wins today, we’ll have a better look at them tomorrow.
Rhode Island v. St. Bonaventure (NBCSN @ 2:30)
The Rams cannot afford to lose this game and then has to hope they get another chance to beat Dayton. Rhode Island had a lot of buzz at the start of the season, but they need two wins in the next two days to have a chance for an at large.
Vanderbilt v. Florida (SEC @ 7)
Win and the Commodores are in. Lose, to a likely four seed, and they present a conundrum. No 15 loss team has ever earned an at large bid, but no 15 loss team usually has five wins over tournament teams. Vandy looks like a good pick to fill up one of those dreaded Dayton spots right now.
Kansas State v. West Virginia (ESPN2 @ 9)
K-State is right on the cut line right now, with their win over Baylor yesterday giving them a huge boost. Win this one and they’re in, lose it and they may still be in, but they’ll be sweating.
TCU v. Iowa St. (ESPN2 @ 7)
TCU shocked Kansas, but even that might not be enough to get them in. They need to beat Iowa St to get into the bubble conversation in earnest. To lock up a bid they need one more good win after that which would, ultimately, earn them the auto bid. Pull for the Cyclones here.
Cal v. Oregon (Pac12 @ 9)
Cal wins this one or they don’t go to the tournament. It gets no simpler than that.