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KenPom Bracketology: 3/2

Xavier in the middle of five Big East teams currently in the bracket… but still somehow behind Wichita State.

Wasn't it just November? We were talking about who might be the point guard and what the realistic ceiling on this Xavier team might be. Now it's March, there are conference

tournaments going on right now, and the number of realistically available bids is rapidly dwindling. On the KenPom bubble, the difference between in and out is determined by margins; where in real life a win or a loss can get you in or out, the Pomeroy numbers demand you overachieve if you want to move up. A close win over a bad team keeps you breathing in the real world; it can be your death knell in the KenPom. That was kind of bleak. Here's the s-curve:

The KenPom s-curve 3/2
1 KANSAS MICHIGAN ST. VIRGINIA VILLANOVA
2 KENTUCKY WICHITA ST. Oklahoma North Carolina
3 West Virginia Miami FL Xavier Indiana
4 Iowa Duke ARIZONA Purdue
5 Iowa St. Oregon California Texas A&M
6 Baylor Utah Vanderbilt Maryland
7 Wisconsin CONNECTICUT Cincinnati Seton Hall
8 VALPARAISO Notre Dame GONZAGA Texas
9 Texas Tech Saint Mary's SAINT JOSEPH'S Butler
10 Tulsa Syracuse Pittsburgh VCU
11 SAN DIEGO ST. ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK Florida Florida St.
12 STEPHEN F. AUSTIN Kansas St. Michigan Creighton
12 Clemson USC
13 YALE SOUTH DAKOTA ST. HAWAII MONMOUTH
14 CAL ST. BAKERSFIELD AKRON STONY BROOK JAMES MADISON
15 CHATTANOOGA UAB MOREHEAD ST. WEBER ST.
16 LEHIGH WAGNER NORTH FLORIDA UNC ASHEVILLE
16 TEXAS SOUTHERN HAMPTON
First 4 out Houston South Carolina Dayton Princeton
Next 4 out UCLA Providence Oregon St. BYU


And the real fake bracket:

KenPom 3-2

As you can see, beating Nova at home was about as good as losing to Seton Hall on the road was bad, and Xavier continues to linger on the three line. The seeding here sets up a potential second weekend matchup with Arizona (since it went so well last time). Knocking off Sean Miller to get to the Final Four would be particularly satisfying, though I guess knocking off anyone to get to the Final Four would be pretty exciting for me.

The top six conferences are dominating this bracket right now, pulling in 38 of the 68 bids. The only multi-bid mid-major leagues are the American (3), A10 (2) and WCC (2). Every other league is pulling in just a single bid. Hilariously, Dayton has dropped to the wrong side of the bubble, which is one way I'm hoping real life ends up imitating this exercise.