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Wasn't it just November? We were talking about who might be the point guard and what the realistic ceiling on this Xavier team might be. Now it's March, there are conference
tournaments going on right now, and the number of realistically available bids is rapidly dwindling. On the KenPom bubble, the difference between in and out is determined by margins; where in real life a win or a loss can get you in or out, the Pomeroy numbers demand you overachieve if you want to move up. A close win over a bad team keeps you breathing in the real world; it can be your death knell in the KenPom. That was kind of bleak. Here's the s-curve:
| The | KenPom s-curve | 3/2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KANSAS | MICHIGAN ST. | VIRGINIA | VILLANOVA |
| 2 | KENTUCKY | WICHITA ST. | Oklahoma | North Carolina |
| 3 | West Virginia | Miami FL | Xavier | Indiana |
| 4 | Iowa | Duke | ARIZONA | Purdue |
| 5 | Iowa St. | Oregon | California | Texas A&M |
| 6 | Baylor | Utah | Vanderbilt | Maryland |
| 7 | Wisconsin | CONNECTICUT | Cincinnati | Seton Hall |
| 8 | VALPARAISO | Notre Dame | GONZAGA | Texas |
| 9 | Texas Tech | Saint Mary's | SAINT JOSEPH'S | Butler |
| 10 | Tulsa | Syracuse | Pittsburgh | VCU |
| 11 | SAN DIEGO ST. | ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK | Florida | Florida St. |
| 12 | STEPHEN F. AUSTIN | Kansas St. | Michigan | Creighton |
| 12 | Clemson | USC | ||
| 13 | YALE | SOUTH DAKOTA ST. | HAWAII | MONMOUTH |
| 14 | CAL ST. BAKERSFIELD | AKRON | STONY BROOK | JAMES MADISON |
| 15 | CHATTANOOGA | UAB | MOREHEAD ST. | WEBER ST. |
| 16 | LEHIGH | WAGNER | NORTH FLORIDA | UNC ASHEVILLE |
| 16 | TEXAS SOUTHERN | HAMPTON | ||
| First 4 out | Houston | South Carolina | Dayton | Princeton |
| Next 4 out | UCLA | Providence | Oregon St. | BYU |
And the real fake bracket:
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As you can see, beating Nova at home was about as good as losing to Seton Hall on the road was bad, and Xavier continues to linger on the three line. The seeding here sets up a potential second weekend matchup with Arizona (since it went so well last time). Knocking off Sean Miller to get to the Final Four would be particularly satisfying, though I guess knocking off anyone to get to the Final Four would be pretty exciting for me.
The top six conferences are dominating this bracket right now, pulling in 38 of the 68 bids. The only multi-bid mid-major leagues are the American (3), A10 (2) and WCC (2). Every other league is pulling in just a single bid. Hilariously, Dayton has dropped to the wrong side of the bubble, which is one way I'm hoping real life ends up imitating this exercise.