When I last ran this column I promised an update after Xavier had played a game. Well, Xavier thumped Marquette last night and I'm a man of my word. That's the good news. The bad news is that Xavier hasn't moved up, not at all. To be fair, that's not really unexpected. Marquette isn't going anywhere and Xavier was surely expected to win that game. Xavier was a 2.08 on the Bracket Matrix before that game, they are a 2.05 now. That's almost the definition of not moving.
The good news is that there is some hope on the horizon. Seton Hall is an entirely different proposition than the Golden Eagles. For one, Xavier could very well lose this game, something they demonstrated the last time these two teams me. Secondly, Seton Hall is a solid lock for the tournament. Winning this game is a definite chance to seize an opportunity should one present itself. Xavier most likely needs to win both this game and the Big East final to grab that one seed.
But what should happen if Xavier falters tonight? Currently, the Musketeers are a consensus two seed. If everyone holds serve, that doesn't change. Things get interesting if Miami beats Virginia tonight. If that happens and say, North Carolina continues unabated, Virginia could fall off the one line. If they do that, someone has to go down. If Miami beats them and keeps winning, they have to move up. In that scenario, Xavier could land as a three. Oklahoma is currently viewed as the weakest one seed. If they lose to West Virginia this evening, much the same situation could play out.
So what does that mean? Basically, Xavier needs to keep winning (obviously) but also pull for other high seeds to keep winning if they want to lock in the two. If Xavier wants a shot at a one seed they need to win the Big East tournament and hope Oklahoma or Virginia loses. If that happens though, Xavier can't afford to lose, or may they be the team sacrificed to bump one of the current one seeds down. That's where the Musketeers currently stand on the seed line.