clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

KenPom Bracketology 2/25

New, comments

Xavier’s win over Nova raised expectations more than it raised the KenPom numbers. X stays in solid position but lags behind its real-life place on the S-curve.

Back to earth, sports fans! As awesome as last night was, when the story of this season is written it will be a footnote to a footnote. The Big East Tournament - in which Xavier just clinched no worse than a second seed - is coming down the pike, and beyond that is the NCAA Tournament (perhaps you've heard of it?). Rightly or not, history is written in March in college basketball, and the first step towards that history is filling out the bracket. Here is how KenPom would do it if his numbers made the picks. First the s-curve:

The KenPom s-curve 2/25
1 MICHIGAN ST. VILLANOVA VIRGINIA KANSAS
2 WICHITA ST. KENTUCKY North Carolina Oklahoma
3 Xavier Duke West Virginia Iowa
4 Iowa St. Purdue Miami FL ARIZONA
5 Indiana Oregon Maryland Texas A&M
6 California CONNECTICUT Vanderbilt Notre Dame
7 Utah Cincinnati Texas Baylor
8 Seton Hall SAINT JOSEPH'S VALPARAISO Wisconsin
9 GONZAGA Texas Tech ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK USC
10 VCU Butler Tulsa Saint Mary's
11 Syracuse Florida YALE Michigan
12 HAWAII Dayton Pittsburgh Kansas St.
12 UCLA South Carolina
13 STONY BROOK SAN DIEGO ST. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN MONMOUTH
14 CHATTANOOGA AKRON UNC WILMINGTON SOUTH DAKOTA ST.
15 UAB NEW MEXICO ST. BELMONT UNC ASHEVILLE
16 BUCKNELL WAGNER NORTH FLORIDA WEBER ST.
16 TEXAS SOUTHERN HAMPTON
First 4 out Creighton Clemson Princeton Florida St.
Next 4 out Providence BYU Georgia Tech Houston


And the complete bracket:

KenPom 2-25

How about the work Greg Gard is getting done at Wisconsin? The Badgers were well off the bottom of the radar a month and a half ago; now they've won 9 of 10 and are off the other side of the KenPom bubble. With wins at home against Michigan State and Indiana and on the road against Maryland and Iowa, Wisconsin has put together an impressive resume. If they hold it together down the stretch, they'll hear their names called on CBS during the selection show.

Xavier's slow climb continues, but the surprise loss of Creighton against Marquette and Georgetown's miserable slog to the finish line of an incredibly disappointing season are dragging down the value of Xavier's two worst losses. When you're where Xavier is now, one ugly loss loses you a lot more ground in the KenPom than a handful of wins can bring you back. In the meantime, Xavier is down to its last two regular season games of the year, the Big East is still not decided, and there's still a one seed in real life to be played for.