Xavier v. Butler: preview, matchups, keys to the game

These feel like dire times for Xavier. From a peak of 8, their KenPom ranking has fallen to 21st. They haven't won in a week and haven't played well for twice that long. They're coming off their worst offensive performance of the year and heading on the road to try to outperform a team with a top ten offense. For all of that, Xavier is still in the top 5 in the polls, 21-3 on the year, and on track for a protected seed in the NCAA tournament.

These are closer to actual dire times for Butler. An 11-1 start put them into the top 10, but a 3-6 first half of Big East play has dropped them to a bubble. Their recent three-game winning streak has somewhat righted the ship, but their fans won't be as comfortable with a potential tournament bid as they were a couple of months ago. Their schedule down the stretch is comparatively favorable, but their margin for error is all but gone.

Team Fingerprint:

Let's start with the bad news. Butler's offense is just as good as Xavier's. Since conference play the offenses have been almost identically efficient, albeit in different ways. Butler protects the ball very well and shoots 37% from behind the arc. They're also excellent from the line and grab about 33% of their misses. Oddly, the have assists on less than half of their made field goals and they also get blocked on 13% of their shot attempts. Still, what they do well, they do very well.

Defensively, the story is not as good for the Bulldogs. While Xavier's defense hasn't been great recently, it's still demonstrably better than Butler's, which can be downright awful. The one thing that Butler does well is force turnovers. They turn opponents over on 19.6% of possessions, which lines up well with Xavier's propensity for turning the ball over. Other than that, the Bulldogs can be had. They don't force teams to shoot poorly from anywhere, they don't block many shots, and they aren't very good on the defensive glass.

Starters

Reserves

The Butler bench is pretty shallow, featuring just two players who average more than 10 minutes a game. Chief among them is Tyler Lewis, who has only played 35 minutes in the last two games after missing four with injury. Lewis is only 5'11", but is a tremendous distributor on offense,which compensated for his lack of shooting. He is not a threat to score, but makes the players around him more effective in their efforts to do so.

The seond player off the bench will be Jordan Gathers, who has gathered sporadic playing time recently but got enough to torch St. John's for 18. Gathers is not exceptional at anything, but is a servicable freshman with enough upside to indicate he has a future at this level.

Three Keys

-Check the arc. Roosevelt Jones can only score from inside the arc. Tyler Wideman is an efficient interior scorer, but his usage rate is very low. Everyone else on the team is a below-average shooter from two-point range and the team as a whole only shoots 46.4% from two. Xavier's better bet is to run Butler off the arc and then work from there.

-Get the ball on the rim. Butler's defense isn't that effective when it isn't forcing turnovers, but they do well in doing that. If Xavier can get shots up, their advantage on the glass will make it a worthwhile pursuit even if the shots aren't falling. Too many turnovers will doom Xavier to another lackluster offensive performance.

-Avoid the early run. Xavier has gotten down big to a couple of teams not nearly as explosive Butler; if they give up a 17-1 or something early in the game, it's going to be a long climb back in at a hostile arena. Butler is going to come out primed to get a big win; Xavier has to keep the game within touching distance while they get their feet under them.