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I'm not going to sugar coat it for you gang, losing to Georgetown wasn't good for Xavier in the Pomeroy rankings. Dropping a home game against a team clinging to the bubble isn't a good look for anyone, and it certainly isn't for a team with three-weekend aspirations. Xavier slid in the bracket; the only question is how far. Here's the s-curve:
The | KenPom s-curve | 1/20 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | VILLANOVA | IOWA | OKLAHOMA | West Virginia |
2 | Purdue | Virginia | North Carolina | LOUISVILLE |
3 | TEXAS A&M | Kansas | Michigan St. | Maryland |
4 | SAINT MARY'S | ARIZONA | Xavier | Miami FL |
5 | Iowa St. | VALPARAISO | Duke | Baylor |
6 | Oregon | Indiana | WICHITA ST. | USC |
7 | Notre Dame | Florida | Michigan | CONNECTICUT |
8 | Cincinnati | VCU | Kentucky | Vanderbilt |
9 | Florida St. | Butler | California | Syracuse |
10 | Evansville | South Carolina | Gonzaga | Creighton |
11 | MONMOUTH | Seton Hall | Dayton | Georgetown |
12 | Colorado | Kansas St. | Providence | Pittsburgh |
12 | ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK | STONY BROOK | ||
13 | HAWAII | UNLV | WILLIAM & MARY | YALE |
14 | STEPHEN F. AUSTIN | CHATTANOOGA | AKRON | SOUTH DAKOTA ST. |
15 | CAL ST. BAKERSFIELD | BELMONT | WEBER ST. | UAB |
16 | TEXAS SOUTHERN | NAVY | UNC ASHEVILLE | NORTH FLORIDA |
16 | WAGNER | NORFOLK ST. | ||
First 4 out | Arkansas | Texas Tech | Texas | Tulsa |
Next 4 out | Saint Joseph's | Oklahoma St. | Clemson | BYU |
Here's what that looks like in a bracket:
It's not good, but it's also not a nightmare. The most important thing it is is January. Somebody told me last night that this was the end of Xavier's hopes for a one seed, as though a two-loss team from a power conference couldn't possibly make its way back onto the top line. There is a lot of basketball left to be played; at this point in time last year, Xavier was 12-6 and about to lose to Providence. If you would have offered me 16-2 at that point, I would have taken it. There's no reason to think that Xavier can't right the ship and get back to a 1 or 2 fairly quickly.
It's also important to keep in mind that human systems (i.e., the selection committee) aren't going to see this as nearly as bad a loss as the KenPom did. Xavier will still be a 2 or a high three in most bracketologies, and that's where they'd be if the season ended today. Last night's result will end up being a much bigger part of Georgetown's seeding in March than it will be of Xavier's.