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Bubble Watch: March 2nd

Xavier really looks pretty good at this point, assuming they don't choke at Creighton, but knowing how the bubble is shaking out isn't a bad idea.

Winning this game would have boosted Texas, but they lost it instead. Bad choice.
Winning this game would have boosted Texas, but they lost it instead. Bad choice.
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Xavier is, at this point, probably not as close to the bubble as doomsday scenarios would have you believe. In the Bracket Matrix compilation of 75 brackets from across the internet, Xavier appears in 74 of them for an average of a 8.41 seed. The Musketeers would have clinched a bid had they held onto the second half lead over Villanova on Saturday, but they didn't.

As things currently stand, Jerry Palm of CBS, generally the most accurate of the bracketologists, has Xavier as a 10 seed, facing San Diego State in the first round. According to Palm, Xavier is in for now and moves off the bubble if they beat Creighton. Meanwhile, ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Xavier as an 8 seed, facing Dayton in the first round for the chance to move on and play Kentucky. Chris Dobbertean of SBN also has Xavier in the 8/9 game, but in his scenario the Musketeers play Dayton for the right to play Duke. It's hard to say who it would be more enjoyable to beat, Duke or UK, but beating Dayton to get to either would just be delightful.

Today isn't a busy bubble day, with only one game:

Baylor at Texas (7p, ESPNU)

Texas is 17-12 and 6-10 in the Big 12, but still right on the lower edge of the bubble. A chance for a great win went by the wayside when they lost to Kansas, which leaves this game and their next against Kansas St. looking a lot like must wins. 11 losses in conference, no matter how good the conference, just isn't getting it done.