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Know what's fun? Thinking about March when your team just started February by losing to a team it is objectively much better than. In real life, Xavier has probably used up almost all of the slack they have in terms of putting together a resume that the Selection Committee will find appealing. Realistically, X can make the tournament with 11, maybe 12 losses on the docket on Selection Sunday. You might have noticed that Xavier has 9 losses already. Anyway, let's see if Ken Pomeroy likes Xavier more than my imaginary future Selection Committee does.
First the s-curve...
| The | KenPom s-curve | 2/5 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KENTUCKY | VIRGINIA | ARIZONA | GONZAGA |
| 2 | Duke | VILLANOVA | Utah | WISCONSIN |
| 3 | OKLAHOMA | Louisville | Kansas | Baylor |
| 4 | Wichita St. | NORTHERN IOWA | Notre Dame | North Carolina |
| 5 | Ohio St. | Butler | West Virginia | SMU |
| 6 | Georgetown | Michigan St. | Iowa St. | VCU |
| 7 | Texas | Oklahoma St. | Xavier | SAN DIEGO ST. |
| 8 | Maryland | Georgia | Mississippi | Stanford |
| 9 | Arkansas | Cincinnati | Florida | STEPHEN F. AUSTIN |
| 10 | Davidson | BYU | Dayton | LSU |
| 11 | St. John's | Alabama | Richmond | Providence |
| 12 | Texas A&M | Iowa | South Carolina | Minnesota |
| 12 | GREEN BAY | OLD DOMINION | ||
| 13 | HARVARD | BUFFALO | MURRAY ST. | WILLIAM & MARY |
| 14 | SOUTH DAKOTA ST. | GEORGIA ST. | IONA | UC IRVINE |
| 15 | WOFFORD | NEW MEXICO ST. | NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL | VERMONT |
| 16 | ST. FRANCIS NY | FLORIDA GULF COAST | HIGH POINT | EASTERN WASHINGTON |
| 16 | LAFAYETTE | TEXAS SOUTHERN | ||
| First 4 out | Seton Hall | Indiana | Arizona St. | TCU |
| Next 4 out | Illinois St. | UCLA | North Carolina St. | Purdue |
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That 7-10 matchup with Dayton is almost too much to hope for. Actually, it is too much to hope for right now, because no reasonable bracketologist is giving Xavier a 7 with a loss to Creighton right in the rear view. We can dream though, right?
In other news, there are nine SEC teams in the KenPom bracket right now, up from a low of 3 early in the year and 6 last week. The Big East has 6 teams plus one more on the bubble, which is pretty much the status quo in this feature. I'm going to go out on a limb and say 6 is the very most teams the league will actually put in the tournament, with 5 seeming like the more likely number. It's going to be a frantic stretch run while the league sorts itself out.