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KenPom Bracketology 2/25

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The whims of fickle bracketologists have Xavier dangerously close to the cut line, but the dispassionate logic of the KenPom rankings tells a different story.

We're really getting into the tight season of college basketball. Teams have already clinched no worse than NIT bids by winning their conferences, and by this time next week half a dozen conference tournaments will be underway. In the meantime, there are about four dozen teams trying to solidify seeding or at-large resumes in the two and a half weeks left between now and Selection Sunday.

The s-curve:

The KenPom s-curve 2/25
1 KENTUCKY ARIZONA VIRGINIA GONZAGA
2 Duke Utah WISCONSIN VILLANOVA
3 OKLAHOMA Kansas WICHITA ST. Northern Iowa
4 North Carolina Ohio St. Baylor Iowa St.
5 Michigan St. Georgetown Notre Dame Louisville
6 Butler SMU Texas West Virginia
7 SAN DIEGO ST. Xavier Iowa VCU
8 Oklahoma St. North Carolina St. Arkansas LSU
9 BYU Mississippi Maryland Davidson
10 Stanford Georgia St. John's Providence
11 Texas A&M Purdue UCLA Boise St.
12 STEPHEN F. AUSTIN Arizona St. Cincinnati Indiana
12 BUFFALO VALPARAISO
13 HARVARD MURRAY ST. OLD DOMINION GEORGIA ST.
14 UC DAVIS WOFFORD IONA NEW MEXICO ST.
15 SOUTH DAKOTA ST. WILLIAM & MARY NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL VERMONT
16 NORTH FLORIDA EASTERN WASHINGTON ST. FRANCIS NY COASTAL CAROLINA
16 COLGATE TEXAS SOUTHERN
First 4 out Florida Vanderbilt Alabama Rhode Island
Next 4 out TCU Dayton Miami FL Richmond

The bracket:

KenPom 2-25


No dream matchup against Dayton here for Xavier, largely because my other dream - Dayton missing the tournament entirely - is being realized. Xavier rides in on that seven line for KenPom, but the real world isn't nearly as kind. The only remaining must-not-lose game is @Creighton; I think if the Muskies get that one and either their home date against Nova or their first-round Big East Tournament game, they're in when Selection Sunday rolls around.

In other interesting news, the Mountain West picks up a second KenPom bid with Boise St. making it to the field via at-large consideration. They're currently one of the last four in, but even that play-in game earns you a nice bonus check from the NCAA. Congratulations to Broncos, who I'm assuming play on an all blue home floor. They're in only about a dozen of the 93 brackets on the Bracket Matrix, so - like Xavier - they're getting a KenPom boost that isn't likely to carry them in real life.