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KenPom Bracketology: Xavier rising up the S curve

Xavier moves farther away from the dreaded play in games and toward the middle of the S curve. Meanwhile, the rest of the Big East is represented very well.

By Joel D and Brad D

Polls are silly. All it takes is one joker with a pen and a ballot and suddenly you end up with Yale receiving votes and Butler as the #15 team in the nation. The KenPom rankings, on the other hand, are the infallible grasp of cold reason, choking the life out of those who would make false claims to being worthy of inclusion in the tournament.

Unless, of course, you disagree with Pomeroy's formula or think his preseason assumptions are skewed or something strange and unexpected happens. Either way, I can almost promise you that this version of the bracket differs from what you'll see on Selection Sunday, but that barely mars the fun of looking into the future.

First the s-curve...

The KenPom s-curve 12/10
1 KENTUCKY DUKE Virginia Louisville
2 ARIZONA WICHITA ST. VILLANOVA WISCONSIN
3 KANSAS GONZAGA Texas Baylor
4 Florida Ohio St. Michigan St. North Carolina
5 Oklahoma Iowa SAN DIEGO ST. Georgetown
6 West Virginia Utah Miami FL Iowa St.
7 Minnesota St. John's Oklahoma St. Butler
8 Syracuse Maryland Illinois HARVARD
9 CONNECTICUT Washington VCU UCLA
10 Notre Dame Arkansas Xavier Northern Iowa
11 South Carolina BYU SMU Michigan
12 Seton Hall Pittsburgh GREEN BAY Georgia
12 Stanford STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
13 GEORGIA ST. LOUISIANA TECH UC SANTA BARBARA IONA
14 BELMONT FLORIDA GULF COAST NEW MEXICO ST. WOFFORD
15 NORTHEASTERN BUFFALO EASTERN WASHINGTON NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
16 COASTAL CAROLINA DENVER AMERICAN VERMONT
16 ST. FRANCIS NY ALABAMA ST.
First 4 out Purdue Cincinnati North Carolina St. George Washington
Next 4 out Creighton Indiana California Wyoming


...and the big reveal:

KenPom10Dec

I had to do some procedural rearranging to keep conference opponents apart, but I think I just about got everything ironed out. Realignment does me no favors here; the teams aren't in the conferences I familiarized myself with during my formative years.

Xavier pulled a ten seed and is playing for a potential second round matchup with Arizona. I probably don't have to tell you why that's intriguing to me. Other news of note includes SMU's charge to semi-respectability giving the American a second team in the projected bracket.

The ACC continues to dominate, with three of the top four teams. Their eight total teams in the tournament ties them with the Big Ten for the most; the Big East still has six in and one (Creighton this week) right on the bubble. Forty-five of the bids come from nine leagues (ACC, Big Ten, Big Twelve, Big East, Pac-12, SEC, AAC, MVC, and WCC) with the 23 others coming from single-bid leagues.

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