Remember last week when we wrote that Luke Winn didn't see anyone on Xavier doing anything particularly well in the upcoming season? In case you missed it, here was his reply to that particular article:
@BannersParkway Exemplary clickbait. For real, tho, the model just thinks Xavier is balanced -- 5 guys between 8.5 and 12.1 ppg.— Luke Winn (@lukewinn) October 16, 2014
Leaving aside for the second the spurious accusation of clickbaiting, that led to all manner of speculation regarding who those five players might be. In a series of further articles through the rest of the week, Winn himself answered 60% of that question.
In his writeup on the top 50 breakout scorers in the nation, Winn tabbed Jalen Reynolds for a 5.0 PPG jump in production, stating that he "could be a star in a few years; the only thing holding him back as a sophomore is that the Musketeers have two other talented frontcourt players in Matt Stainbrook and James Farr." It would be interesting to see his projected numbers on Farr, because production from him would be a huge boon for the Muskies' frontcourt depth. In the meantime, I think a lot of Xavier fans see 8.8 PPG as the low end of Reynolds's potential this season.
Trevon Bluiett found his way onto the list of the projected leading freshman scorers in the nation. Winn has him tabbed for a game line of 9.6/4.1/1.3. The projection is a little more in depth here, telling us that Bluiett's ORtg in the simulations fell at 105 and he had a usage rate of 21% while getting about 26 minutes per game. That would put his production about on par with what Xavier saw out of Dez Wells as a freshman, which isn't a bad level to aspire to in your first season.
Finally, and most interestingly to me, Remy Abell clocked in at 43rd on the top 100 projected transfer scorers. Winn sees Abell being good for a respectable 8.5 PPG with a usage rate of 19% and an ORtg of 116. Those are good, efficient numbers for a fifth scorer, made all the more intriguing to me by the fact that Winn has Martin projected to score 8.2 PPG on an identical usage rate and an ORtg of 108. I bear no ill will to JMart, but it would be a little sweet to me to see Abell best him in terms of raw production.
What do these numbers tell you about the team? Do you think Winn shot particularly high or low on any of these guys? Assuming the Stain Train is going to lead the way, who is that fifth scorer between 12.1 and 8.5 for Xavier?